沪郊农户的种粮意愿及其影响因素分析——基于大城市粮食安全供给角度

通过上海市郊区农户粮食生产情况的调查,对农户粮食种植的意愿进行了实证分析,结果表明:沪郊的粮食播种面积逐渐下降,农户的种粮意愿不容乐观.农户的性别、年龄、户主职业、务农时间、农资价格、种粮预期收益及政策因素变量等对农户的种粮意愿均有显著影响.为了保证上海市的粮食供给安全,建议采取平抑农资价格、加大农业劳动力人才培养及结构调整力度、完善粮食专业合作社运营机制、加大对粮食补贴政策的宣传力度等措施来提高农户的粮食种植意愿.     

Land allocation conditioned on El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases in the Pampas of Argentina

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to the vulnerability of crop production to climate variability in the Pampas region of Argentina. Predictability of regional climate anomalies associated with ENSO may provide opportunities to tailor decisions to expected climate, either to mitigate expected adverse conditions or to take advantage of favorable conditions. Model analysis was used to explore the potential for tailoring land allocation among crops to ENSO phases at the farm scale in two sub-regions of the Pampas. The model identifies as a function of risk preferences and initial wealth the crop mix that maximizes expected utility of wealth at the end of a 1-year decision period based on current costs and prices, and crop yields simulated for each year of historical weather. The model reproduced recent land allocation patterns at the district scale under moderate risk aversion, and predicted increasing diversification with increasing risk aversion. Differences in land allocation among ENSO phases were consistent with known climate response to ENSO, and crop response to water availability. Tailoring land allocation to ENSO phase increased mean net farm income between US$5 and $15 ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ relative to optimizing the crop mixture for all years, depending on location, risk aversion and initial wealth. The relationship between potential value of ENSO information and risk aversion was not monotonic, and differed between locations. Crop mix and information value also varied with crop prices and initial soil moisture. There are potential financial benefits of applying this approach to tailoring decisions to ENSO phases.     

P群种质在玉米杂种优势利用和种质创新中的作用及展望

通过分析P群种质选育的品种,结合育种实践,认为P群种质是不同于我国原有4大杂种优势类群的一个相对独立的新的优势群.总结出P群种质的主要杂种优势模式,即P群×Reid类群、P群×塘四平头类群、P群×旅大红骨类群和P群×其它种质类群.提出了P群种质在今后玉米育种和种质扩增中存在的问题和利用思路。     

农业资源综合利用效率的评价方法及案例分析

基于对农业资源高效利用的概念和特点的认识并考虑资料的来源和计算的可行性,建立了农业资源综合利用效率的评价指标体系,提出了农业资源综合利用效率的评价方法,以河北省奕城县为例进行分析计算,得出了初步结论。     

渤海沉积物中微生物铁还原能力及其影响因素探讨

采用恒温厌氧培养实验,以Fe（OH）3为唯一电子受体,通过测定接种不同沉积物提取液后的体系中Fe（Ⅱ）含量变化,研究了渤海沉积物在不同的碳源、温度、厌氧培养时间及pH条件下的铁还原特征。结果表明,从不同水质海区沉积物提取的微生物群落均可以葡萄糖和丙酮酸盐为优势碳源,并迅速还原Fe（Ⅲ）,其利用不同碳源的铁还原能力表现为葡萄糖〉丙酮酸盐〉乳酸盐〉乙酸盐;在不同水质海区之间Fe（Ⅲ）还原程度存在一定差异,Ⅲ类和Ⅳ类水质区域的微生物Fe（Ⅲ）还原能力明显低于Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类水质区域;以葡萄糖和丙酮酸盐作为碳源培养时,在15℃和30℃培养条件下其Fe（Ⅲ）还原反应的活性随着温度的升高而升高,表明微生物在优势碳源下,提高培养温度可促进铁还原反应的效率;淹水时间延长可改变微生物群落结构,促进利用葡萄糖和丙酮酸盐的微生物恢复增长,使Fe（Ⅲ）还原能力增强;微生物群落在pH中性体系条件下Fe（Ⅲ）还原能力最强,随着体系pH值由8.0升高到11.0或pH由6.0降低到3.0,体系中Fe（Ⅲ）还原能力均逐渐降低。     

农村基层档案的利用价值及服务模式探讨

农村基层档案是地方文献的重要组成部分,它以地方文献服务模式的特点,服务于中国农村研究的各个领域,对中国农村政治、农村经济、农村文化、农村历史的研究有着重要的学术价值。     

中美农作物收入保险产品:比较与启示

农作物收入保险能够对因产量降低、价格下跌或产量与价格共同变化所引致的收入损失提供补偿,因而成为国际农业保险产品发展的方向。美国农作物收入保险运作已经相当成熟,对中国发展收入保险具有重要借鉴意义。采用比较研究法,分别介绍中美两国农业保险的组织架构,阐释两国农作物收入保险产品的具体设计和运作,并将两国农业保险产品置于巨灾保险(CAT)、买入保障水平(BUY-UP)和补充保障选项(SCO)的产品分类框架下进行比较分析。结果表明,中国农作物收入保险以准收入保险产品为主,尚存在产量和价格数据设置不合理、保障水平和保费补贴政策单一等不足。相比之下,美国农作物收入保险种类丰富,以累积多年的农作物产量数据和期货价格数据为基础,提供多档次可供选择的保障水平,保险单元按照个体和农场进行了区分,并设置了差异化的保费补贴政策。因此,从政策性农业保险要追随农业政策发展目标、提高农业保险组织效率和加强农业保险数据建设方面,对我国发展农作物收入保险给出重要启示。     

Analyzing the effects of risk and uncertainty on optimal tillage and nitrogen fertilizer intensity for field crops in Germany

This study provides a risk analysis of long-term field experiments in Germany (Bavaria) on various field crops (potato, wheat and corn), grown in rotation, under a variety of different tillage and nitrogen management systems. The field experiment provided yield and input data for the analysis, and was combined with market data relevant to the case-study region. The emphasis of the analysis is on the interaction between risk and tillage and nitrogen strategies. Over the whole rotation (corn-wheat-potato-wheat), conventional tillage combined with conventional nitrogen rates is optimal, both for risk-neutral and risk-averse farmers. Although less intensive management practices involve lower risk, the decrease in risk premium is not sufficient to alter the ranking of strategies, even for farmers with higher levels of risk aversion. Reducing nitrogen rates would be costly to farmers, especially under reduced or shallow tillage. Decoupled farm subsidies within the expected utility model show that even for a scenario with no subsidies our conclusions do not change.     

基因专利法律保护相关问题研究

通过对基因的可专利性问题的探讨,阐明了科学发现和科学发明的区别,并结合我国现有专利法对基因专利的法律保护及基因的生物学特点,剖析了基因专利的新颖性、创造性和实用性要求,同时论述了基因专利的保护范围.     

一类三级供应链模型的研究

在博弈论的框架下,将一个二级供应链模型推广为三级供应链模型,并将之应用于研究饲料商、养猪户及消费者构成的三级供应链系统的定价决策中。建立了关于猪肉价格、需求量的消费者效用函数;建立了具有Stackelberg博弈特征的定价决策模型,并分析求解了该模型,研究了饱和状态下的饲料价格;最后讨论了政府在引导该地区饲料商、养猪户有效定价以实现最大利润及更好地满足消费者需求过程中的作用。